Sergio Perez’s crisis in Formula 1 has been going on for weeks in 2024. After the Red Bull driver initially gave the impression at the start of the season with a series of podium finishes that he had left his months-long problems from the previous year behind him, these have now returned with vehemence. So much so that there are even rumors of a replacement during the summer break.
There are precedents at Red Bull. Max Verstappen replaced the error-prone Daniil Kvyat in 2016, and Pierre Gasly had to hand over his cockpit to Alex Albon in 2019. Motorsport-Magazin.com analyzes the numbers to clearly illustrate the seriousness of the Perez situation.
Evil comparisons: When Sargeant & Hülkenberg are better
What has come to light in recent weekends are the really bad statistical anomalies. For example, the sober observation that Logan Sargeant’s qualifying time is 3:11 compared to Perez. Both have three Q1 exits. This means that Sargeant is in a better position against Perez than against Alex Albon (3:11).
Comparisons with Nico Hülkenberg are just as bad. In the last six races, he has made more Q3 appearances than Perez (3 to 2) and has one point more than Perez (16 to 15). But as stated, these are statistical anomalies on the sidelines, often caused by errors. What do the countable metrics look like? And how does Perez compare to his Red Bull predecessors?
Sergio Perez will be difficult to sustain due to miserable relapse in 2024
The second quarter of the season is Perez’s problem. While he was on target in the first quarter as Verstappen’s number two, he is the ninth-best driver in the last six races with 15 points. Verstappen and Lando Norris, the top scorers, only scored less than 15 points on one weekend each during this period. Ninth out of four top teams – Hülkenberg appears again. He is eighth, having scored 16 points in just two races.
The pressure on Perez becomes more obvious when looking at the development of the constructors’ points in these six races. Despite weekends that were far from optimized, McLaren won 37 points on Red Bull, Mercedes 23. On average, McLaren now has to make up 7 points per race to become world champion.
| team | Points since Imola | Profit/Loss on RBR | remaining residue |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBull | 134 | – | – |
| McLaren | 171 | + 37 | 78 |
| Mercedes | 157 | + 23 | 152 |
| Ferrari | 115 | – 19 | 71 |
Only a mistake-prone McLaren team and a constantly changing balance of power are currently buying Red Bull time. Ferrari, who were the first to chase the winner in the first quarter, crashed and even lost 19 points in the second. In return, McLaren and Mercedes are now basically equal to Red Bull.
Does Red Bull have to replace Perez? Comparisons with Verstappen victims
This makes it statistically clear that Red Bull is in danger of losing the constructors’ championship as a one-man show. And this also explains the speculation about Perez being swapped for Daniel Ricciardo or Liam Lawson during the summer break. Red Bull last resorted to this drastic measure in 2019, when it fired Pierre Gasly.
As mentioned, Perez started the season in acceptable conditions. 3 tenths behind Verstappen would have been enough for Red Bull. That is the average he had in his best season with the team, 2022. At the time, it was statistically the best qualifying season against Verstappen since Daniel Ricciardo in 2018. He also suffered a clear defeat back then, but kept the loss within limits.
Max Verstappen vs. All Red Bull drivers since 2018 in qualifying
| driver | Final score | Residue | in % | Starting point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Ricciardo ’18 | 11:5 | 0.153 | 0.18% | 5.6 to 5.5 |
| vs. Gasly ’19 | 10:1 | 0.426 | 0.54% | 4.1 to 7.7 |
| vs. Albon ’19 | 7:0 | 0.609 | 0.67% | 3.1 to 7 |
| vs. Albon ’20 | 16:0 | 0.649 | 0.75% | 3.1 to 6.9 |
| vs. Perez ’21 | 20:1 | 0.528 | 0.62% | 2 to 6.4 |
| vs. Perez ’22 | 18:4 | 0.322 | 0.43% | 2.6 to 5 |
| vs. Perez ’23 | 25:2 | 0.589 | 0.72% | 2.3 to 8.2 |
| vs. Perez ’24 | 15:0 | 0.497 | 0.67% | 1.9 to 7.5 |
Perez’s problem is that in 2023 and 2024 he is now driving at the level that once cost Albon his job. In fact, Gasly’s 2019 statistics are still the second best since Ricciardo’s departure, topped only by Perez’s 2022. In 2024, Perez’s qualifying record is the worst in the field. No other driver is almost five tenths behind on average and was unable to make a run in either a sprint or GP qualifying.
Of course, these qualifying statistics also illustrate how difficult it is to survive in the second Red Bull. Ricciardo’s 2018 was a long time ago, and Verstappen has undoubtedly grown as a driver since then. But Perez’s 2022 shows that half a second is not necessary. And in 2024, the Red Bull RB20 will certainly not have a half-second lead over everyone in qualifying to conceal Perez’s problem days in the results list.
There are at least two McLarens, two Mercedes and two Ferraris in this window. Perez has already proven in the first quarter of the 2024 season that he can do better. But that was a long time ago. And the statistics show that 2022 and the first six races of 2024 are actually more likely to be positive outliers. And the negative is the standard program. From the team’s point of view, things cannot continue like this.