S for starting grid
George Russell will start a Formula 1 race from pole position today at the Canadian GP for the third time in his career. He previously managed to do this in 2022 in Hungary and 2022 in Brazil, even though he was not awarded pole position at the Sao Paulo GP (sprint weekend). Max Verstappen is the first driver in 26 years to achieve the feat of equalizing another driver’s pole time. He will start from P2. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are waiting for their chance on the second row, followed by Daniel Ricciardo, who sensationally raced to P5 in qualifying.
Fernando Alonso follows in P6. Lewis Hamilton looked like the favorite for pole position for a long time, but failed twice in Q3 and was relegated to P7 in the final run. Yuki Tsunoda, Lance Stroll and Alex Albon complete the top 10. The biggest disappointments in qualifying are probably the two Ferraris in P11 and P12, as well as Sergio Perez, who did not make it past 16th place on the grid. Nico Hülkenberg will only start from P18 after a chain reaction triggered by rear wing problems in training.
S for Start
Only 260 meters separate the first starting position from the first corner. This makes it one of the shortest routes to turn 1. Nevertheless, the first few meters are tough. A slight bend leads the drivers into the first bend. Then through turns 1 and 2 it is usually tight. Whoever is on the outside in turn 1 theoretically has the inside lane for turn 2. Provided, of course, that you don’t get left behind or pushed off the track. Statistically speaking, however, the pole setter has a clear advantage. Since 2000, he has only come out of the first corner not in the lead twice – in 21 Grands Prix. Interestingly, in both cases it was a driver from row 2 who took the lead, and not the driver in second place on the grid (2016 Sebastian Vettel from P3 and in 2005 Giancarlo Fisichella from P4).
S for strategy
Graining could be the key word at the Formula 1 race in Canada. The tires tend to have grain on the newly laid asphalt. Pirelli therefore assumes that a one-stop strategy is possible, but not the fastest option. According to the Italians, a two-stopper, in which the hard tires are used twice, is mathematically the fastest way to complete the 70 laps of the 4.361-kilometer-long track. But these strategy calculations are of course only relevant if the race takes place in the dry. If it rains, they are irrelevant, and at the moment that does not seem unlikely.
S for Scuderia bankruptcy
They were the big favorites before this race weekend: Ferrari. The reasons were logical: Ferrari was strong in Monaco. In Monaco there are many places where the fastest line goes over the kerbs, in Canada there are many places where the fastest line goes over the kerbs. Monaco consists of many short and some tight corners, Canada consists of many short and some tight corners. The only thing that spoke against the reds were the long straights. But instead of fighting for pole position, Ferrari didn’t even find themselves in Q3. “We’re just slow in the dry,” said Charles Leclerc in dismay after qualifying. The balance and the grip level caused problems.
The hope is on the race pace, but no team has much data to confirm or refute such hopes. What would speak in favor of the Scuderia in the race is the announcement that graining is coming into play. The last Grands Prix where this played a significant role were Australia 2024 and Las Vegas 2023. The Scuderia won one race comfortably after a Verstappen defect, in the other they had the fastest car and only lost due to bad strategy. But even if the race pace is better: 10 cars still have to be overtaken first.
S for Silver Arrow Sensation
Those who are said to be dead live longer! In the case of Mercedes, the resurrection came suddenly and out of nowhere. In Montreal, the Silver Arrows seem to have found the philosopher’s stone. Whether it is just due to the somewhat unusual conditions, or whether George Russell and Lewis Hamilton can now be expected more often, will be shown in the next races. We will find out today during the Grand Prix whether they can also be expected in terms of race pace. Russell can start the race from the front, Hamilton will probably be stuck in traffic in P7. If so, then it will be up to the youngster to sort it out and take on the fight against Max Verstappen, and not the record champion.
S for bad weather
Rain is as much a part of the Canadian GP as the maple leaf, ice hockey or the Mounties are part of the second largest country in the world. Today’s qualifying was the first since 2019 to take place in dry conditions. It is also no coincidence that the longest race in Formula 1 history was a rain battle on the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The 2011 GP, to be precise.
S for winner
Normally we come to the point where one name stands above everything: Max Verstappen. And yes, he is also to be reckoned with in Canada, even if he is not on pole position. But the last few weeks have shown us that the world champion in the Red Bull is anything but unassailable. In the last three Grands Prix, he did not have the fastest car in racing trim. McLaren was able to claim that twice, Ferrari once.
But the cards are reshuffled in the rain. We haven’t experienced a real rain race this year, so the performance forecasts for the cars are still thin. But one thing is certain: when it rains, the driving talent often comes into play more and that speaks in favor of Verstappen, who is hardly inferior to anyone in this aspect. Apart from that, it is difficult to make a reliable forecast. Long-run data in the dry is not available in meaningful quantities or under meaningful conditions, and certainly not for rain.