1. S for Start
The starting grid for today’s Monaco GP could well be very similar to the result of the race. It is well known how difficult it is for Formula 1 drivers to overtake on Monaco’s winding, slow circuit. Don’t forget: Daniel Ricciardo even drove to victory here in 2018 with a half-hybrid system. So pole man Charles Leclerc definitely has the best chances today.
The danger is not even particularly great at the start. Ste. Devote, the first corner, is only 159 metres away. Unless there is chaos, Oscar Piastri on second place on the grid is the only driver who can really pose a threat to Leclerc at this stage of the race. And in recent years the starts have often been well controlled. Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris, who are behind them, are only outsiders with such short distances, and even more so George Russell and Max Verstappen, who are only on the third row.
Yes, Red Bull and Verstappen have written off this Grand Prix. The much stronger competition from McLaren and Ferrari already exposed long-standing problems on uneven race tracks in yesterday’s qualifying, complained Max Verstappen. He is stuck between Russell and Lewis Hamilton in the Mercedes sandwich, while behind him Yuki Tsunoda, Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly are hoping for the last points.
The race is really over for those behind. Haas was disqualified due to an error in fitting the new rear wings, Nico Hülkenberg and Kevin Magnussen will start from the pits. Sergio Perez and Fernando Alonso drove a disastrous qualifying and will only start from positions 16 and 14.
2. S for Black Leclerc Magic
So the winner is probably the Pole man? Well, there is a problem here, and it is Charles Leclerc. He would be well advised to use a little black magic before the start today, if it helps. All the Monegasque has managed in his previous seven races in Monaco in Formula 1 and Formula 2 were failures in a row (despite three poles). He was unable to take one of these poles due to a defect on the reconnaissance lap. Ferrari took the second one away from him in 2022 through strategy.
3. S for strategy
Medium-Hard or Hard-Medium are the only sensible options according to Pirelli. The tires last a long time here and it is almost impossible to overtake someone even with massive tire problems. Nevertheless, strategy is not easy. First of all: Because of the short distance to the first corner, it is tempting to start on Hard. The medium grip advantage is negligible at 159 meters. In exchange, the Hard offers the option of dragging out the first stint forever to wait for a safety car.
If this safety car does not arrive, the timing of the stop is critical. In the past, Monaco has been both an undercut and an overcut race. Sometimes cars that are stuck in traffic for ages can gain ground as soon as the competition in front of them stops out of the way, and can therefore gain positions by changing later. Conversely, cars that stop early can get out of the traffic and make up time. So you have to pay attention, especially to the GPS map – and avoid any traffic when stopping at all costs.
4. S for scrap
Also known as the Safety Car, but in Monaco an accident can happen quickly, and above all a red flag can appear quickly. Run-off areas are practically non-existent. Almost every attempt to overtake is a desperate act with the risk of an accident. A red flag in particular can turn the race on its head. Anyone who hasn’t been to the pits by then gets a tire change for free and doesn’t lose a single position. That’s why it’s tempting to start with hard tires and just wait.
But that also carries a risk. Even if the safety car comes in the first quarter of the race, it is actually negligent not to stop. But then you have to struggle through until lap 78 on the medium tyre. At the end of that time, there would be no grip left. But, as mentioned, you can’t overtake. The only problem then is that no grip makes driving more difficult. And can lead to more scrap.
5. S for sponsor banner
If we look for scenarios in which Charles Leclerc could be deprived of a victory in Monaco in the most absurd way today, then we find the topic of sponsor banners at the top. These turned out to be surprisingly delicate in qualifying. In 2024, Formula 1 seems particularly close to the wall, and several banners came off in Q1. They were picked up by Lando Norris and – of course – Charles Leclerc.
Both had to go to the pits to get rid of the banners. No problem in qualifying, as long as there is enough time. Of course, not an option in the race. Sure, “you can’t overtake” applies here too, but only if it gets caught in a purely aerodynamically relevant area. A nightmare would be a banner that ends up in the brake or engine cooling system. But Formula 1 intends to remove the banners at neuralgic points today.
6. S for sunshine
The last two Monaco races were marked by chaotic weather conditions. While the classic Grand Prix here offers little action, a bit of moisture can quickly turn the event into a classic. The rain that was expected at the start of the week did not come at the weekend. The probability of rain for the Grand Prix has now fallen to single-digit percentages.
7. S for winner
Even without rain, it won’t be a walk in the park for Charles Leclerc today. The competition behind him should not be underestimated. First and foremost, the McLaren of Oscar Piastri, who has had some really strong races. If Leclerc’s long run problems from Friday are not resolved and Piastri can build up pressure in the race close behind Leclerc, then he is just one perfect strategy call away from victory.
Finding out live during the race whether an undercut or an overcut is more effective could give Piastri his first Grand Prix victory. Or Leclerc his first home victory – which would mean he would have converted one of his poles into a win for the first time in 13 races. Yes, it’s been a long time. The 18 other Formula 1 drivers will have to hope for major turbulence so that opportunities open up for them too.