In the middle of the European season, Formula 1 will return to the American continent in June as usual for a short interlude. The 2024 Canadian Grand Prix is scheduled to take place in Montreal. After there were three different winners in the last three races, the 2024 Formula 1 season could be closer than initially expected. The burning question hanging over the race weekend in Canada is: Will Max Verstappen regain his place at the top and will Red Bull regain dominance?
1. Focus on the title fight: Which pursuer will be the most dangerous to Max Verstappen?
After the first five races of the season, of which Max Verstappen won four races, everything looked as if Verstappen and Red Bull would also be sure to win the world championship title in 2024. But since Miami, the tide has turned. With the updates, McLaren seems to have an equally strong car, if not the strongest overall package. In Monaco, Charles Leclerc’s time came in the Ferrari. With his victory, the current world championship runner-up was able to reduce the gap to Verstappen from 48 to 31 points.
What speaks for Red Bull: The victories that they did not have on their side this season were in Melbourne, Miami and Monaco – all street circuits, i.e. not permanent race tracks. After Canada, however, there are real traditional tracks on the horizon with a series of European classics. They will demonstrate the true balance of power between the three top teams and could possibly turn out to be Red Bull country again.
In Montreal, however, the reigning world champion’s lead could shrink further. Ferrari is considered to be at least an equal competitor on the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve. “Ferrari was always fast in Montreal and Ferrari is consistent. They are now very close to us,” Red Bull motorsport boss Dr. Helmut Marko recently sensed a threat from the Reds. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could also be in the mix at the front again.
The constructors’ championship is even closer than the drivers’ championship. There are only 24 points between Red Bull and Ferrari. Sergio Perez’s performance trend is currently declining compared to the start of the season. If Perez does not find his way back on track in Canada and Verstappen also has to deal with car problems again, there is a small chance that Ferrari will return to Europe as the leading team in the World Championship.
At the top, we can expect an exciting sporting story with an open outcome in Montreal. A clear favorite for the top podium cannot be identified in advance. But based on the findings of the last few race weekends, the Red Bull drivers are no longer the only contenders for victory, because McLaren and Ferrari have caught up in big steps.
The accident that Sergio Perez was involved in on the opening lap of the Monaco GP could prove very costly for Red Bull. What impact will the costly damage have on the 2024 World Championship battle? In an interview with Motorsport-Magazin.com Dr. Helmut Marko assesses the situation of the racing team:
2. Focus on the track: Will the kerbs be Max Verstappen’s downfall?
Another thing that could cause problems for Red Bull is the track. The 4.36-kilometer-long, semi-permanent course is located on the Île Notre-Dame, an artificial island in the St. Lawrence River. It has one of the lowest average speeds, is known for full-throttle sections, medium-speed chicanes and heavy braking zones, and therefore demands a lot from the drivers as well as the vehicles.
Even small mistakes on the track are punished. The walls mostly run close to the race track, so that a trip can have serious consequences. And of course we shouldn’t forget the famous “Wall of Champions” at the exit of the last chicane, which big names like Jacques Villeneuve, Michael Schumacher and Damon Hill crashed into in 1999.
The key to success? On the one hand, a setup that allows high top speeds, and on the other hand, good balance, traction and braking stability for the slow sections of the track. The six left-hand bends and eight right-hand bends also require a racing car that can change direction quickly. The perfect qualifying lap also requires the best possible use of the aggressive curbs – a circumstance that could be responsible for Verstappen not expecting Red Bull’s strongest weekend in Canada.
After the unsatisfactory performance in Monaco, Christian Horner, team boss of Red Bull, identified the bumps on the track and kerbs as the main problem for the RB20. These two factors will also be an issue in Canada.
Or is it? The bumps on the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve could be a thing of the past. Pirelli announced before the Grand Prix: “The entire track has been resurfaced for this year and the curbs have been replaced. In theory, the existing track characteristics, i.e. low tire wear and thus reduced grip, should remain unchanged.”
Whether the basic properties of the track surface have actually not changed as a result of the new asphalting will only become clear on Friday when the Formula 1 cars take to the track.
3. Focus Alpine: Will the team be destroyed by internal struggles?
Another question that will accompany the weekend in Montreal once again revolves around the driver market. Where will Esteban Ocon, whose departure from Alpine was sealed yesterday, go in 2025 and who will be his successor at Alpine?
It is questionable whether the decision of the driver and team to go their separate ways is directly related to the incident on the opening lap of the Monaco GP. Team boss Bruno Famin threatened consequences, but Ocon’s future at the French racing team had been discussed for some time – at least since he repeatedly put himself in line for the vacant Mercedes seat at the start of the season.
There is a lot of clashing between the Alpine colleagues – they proved this on the track in Monte Carlo. Watch this video to see what our F1 expert Christian Danner thinks about Esteban Ocon’s behavior:
Furthermore, after the collision with his teammate Pierre Gasly, for which Ocon was found guilty, the question remains as to how well the cooperation within the team will continue to work. The already frosty relationship between the two colleagues is likely to have become even icier as a result of the incident.
This means that Alpine remains a problem child – although performance has recently improved and Gasly was able to score the team’s second point in Monaco. Due to frequent personnel changes, a catastrophic start to the season and a driver pairing that was doomed from the start, the racing team has had a chaotic image in recent months. Which direction will the team take now? Can Ocon and Gasly pull together in their remaining races together?
4. Focus on the backfield: Who will grab the coveted points?
This would be important simply because they are fighting a close battle at the back of the field in which every point counts. Haas, Williams and Sauber are also in the game.
Because Williams also scored its first points in the 2024 F1 season in Monaco, the Swiss are the only team without any points in the table. They now want to finally score points in Canada. Because the conditions there are completely different, said Guanyu Zhou after a desolate performance in Monaco. “The field is tight and the competition is strong, but we are ready for the challenge,” announced Sauber’s team representative Alessandro Alunni Bravi.
But the other back-bencher teams will also want to get the most out of it and use every opportunity that presents itself. The track in Canada, which unlike Imola or Monaco allows for overtaking manoeuvres and exciting racing, offers good opportunities for the weaker cars.
5. Weather Focus: Will rain be followed by sunshine?
The Canadian weather has often thrown a spanner in the works for Formula 1. The rainy race in 2011, in which several records were set, is probably unforgettable: the Grand Prix was not only the longest race in Formula 1 history, but also the slowest. The safety car was called out five times and was in use for 30 laps.
Could there be a repeat this year? So far there has been a risk of light rain showers on all three days, with the lowest probability of rain on race Sunday. The weather in Montreal is also always very changeable in June. Rain, wind and sunshine alternate and temperatures can also fluctuate greatly within a day. Last year, for example, Friday and Sunday were dry, but qualifying Saturday was very rainy.
When it comes to preparing strategy and car setup, the changeable weather in Canada presents a particular challenge for the teams. An unexpected rain shower could shake up the field or at least cause one or two surprising placings.
6. Focus Strategy: One Stop? Two Stops?
Speaking of strategy: The tire strategies could be as much a mix as the weather. Pirelli is again running the three softest tire compounds. That means: C3 as hard, C4 as medium, C5 as soft. This trio was also used at the 2023 Canadian GP and provided different strategy options. Most started on the yellow tires, a few on white tires. Only the soft tire was hardly used at all.
Last year, both one-stoppers and two-stoppers were observed during the race. The top three drivers had two tire changes, while some behind them tried their luck by extending the first stint. This definitely promises more variety and more exciting tactical options than at the last Monaco GP, where everyone made the mandatory tire change during the red flag phase after lap 1, meaning that only seven regular pit stops were made later in the race (the fastest pit stops from Monaco at a glance).
Safety car phases are also very likely in Montreal. Bernd Mayländer was called onto the track in four of the last five races in Canada. Only a few other tracks on the Formula 1 racing calendar have a higher probability of a safety car. The teams must also take this into account when making strategic decisions.
Red Bull’s crisis, the balance of power at the front and back of the field, track characteristics, weather, tires, safety car – there are a lot of unknowns that we should keep an eye on over the weekend. Variety is almost guaranteed at the 2024 Canadian GP.