The duel between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris is ready to start again today at the Formula 1 in Silverstone. But not in the expected format. The two opponents of the last few weeks are only starting from the second row because they were outsmarted by Mercedes in qualifying. Does this mean that the favorites check now has to speak of a four-way battle in the race?
Mercedes’ performance cannot be dismissed, at least not with regard to Saturday. Sure, Verstappen damaged the underbody when he went off the gravel. His missing four tenths are therefore easily explained. It will be repaired for the race. In case of emergency, Red Bull has a replacement underbody of the new specification ready. This means that qualifying should have no further consequences for him other than a weak fourth place on the grid.
But what the qualifying made clear was that neither McLaren nor Red Bull had enough pace to make mistakes against Mercedes. Lando Norris was absolutely in the fight for pole, but he made a mistake on the decisive lap. On a track that was developing quickly after the rain, he suddenly found himself in third place, two tenths behind George Russell and a few hundredths behind Lewis Hamilton.
What are Mercedes’ strengths at Silverstone?
On the other hand, Mercedes was somewhat surprised by its good qualifying performance. On Friday, the car on the soft tyres was simply not good enough. What suited Russell and Hamilton was their native English weather. Lots of rain, which didn’t last until qualifying, but still caused a big drop in temperature.
“We have a compromise, not as extreme as Mercedes I think,” Red Bull’s motorsport advisor Dr. Helmut Marko told Motorsport-Magazin.com the setup situation for the race. “I think with the wing that Mercedes has, McLaren is our biggest opponent. Or we are for them. We have to get past them first.”
Is McLaren’s low top speed a problem in Silverstone?
The Mercedes advantage created by the weather conditions evens out over the race distance. The top teams are generally divided on the downforce level. Red Bull drives with a not insignificant amount of wing, but benefited from the car’s usual strong DRS effect when it came to absolute top speed in qualifying. McLaren stood out negatively here.
Oscar Piastri was actually at the top of the top speed rankings, but that was because McLaren messed up the timing of his last Q3 shot. With the clock running down, Piastri had to start his decisive lap in Carlos Sainz’s gearbox. “Helpful for the straights, not so much for the corners,” he said laconically afterwards. That’s why he’s only starting from fifth place.
In comparable conditions, the McLaren’s top speed with the DRS open is rather poor. That’s bad when you have to start from third and fifth place. Especially for Silverstone, the team brought three beam wing options and a rear wing adapted to the type of track and ultimately opted for decent downforce.
What is the strategy for the Silverstone race?
More downforce can help tire wear, and can pay off especially when grip is low in the rain. But it’s a delicate balance. On paper, Silverstone is a low-downforce track for modern Formula 1 because many of the fast corners are taken at full throttle, regardless of wing level.
The tyre wear is also not particularly high. Due to the high stress caused by the high cornering speeds, Pirelli has the three hardest compounds at the start, but it is precisely these stresses that make the difference, not the wear. Only the soft proved susceptible to surface overheating and graining in the long runs on Friday. And that can be managed in the starting phase.
That’s why Pirelli is firmly expecting a soft-medium one-stop. The soft is significantly faster in terms of absolute pace. From lap 16 onwards, a change to hard is possible, but holding out a little longer and finishing on medium is preferable.
How dangerous is Mercedes really at Silverstone?
After qualifying, the Mercedes drivers dismissed suggestions that they had put the race on the back burner. “I was careful with my setup, more towards a good balance for the race rather than for one lap,” assured Hamilton. “I do think the car will be good tomorrow.”
It is quite possible, however, that Mercedes simply does not have the race pace. Regardless of how good the setups are. A gap of one and a half to two tenths could be the harsh reality. In the Friday long runs, Norris and Verstappen were evenly matched at the front. Even if they only start from the second row, everyone names these two as the first favorites.
Norris warns nonetheless: The Mercedes is good at protecting its front axle. Nevertheless, he is also confident about his race pace: “It was probably one of our strengths recently. In fact, race pace before qualifying pace. But this is a completely different type of track.”
Is everyone ready for the big Silverstone rain?
The weather in Silverstone is of course completely different. Notoriously unpredictable, you can actually save yourself the trouble of looking at the forecast for today. All you need to know is that rain will be in the air all day. When it comes, memories of Canada will quickly come back for some of those battling for victory.
Max Verstappen won there because he was almost perfect. His pursuers learned something. Whether in terms of strategy, as in the case of McLaren, or in terms of mindset, as George Russell revealed: “In Montreal, my risk-to-reward setting was turned up to the max. That worked against me in some places. Now I remember that races are won in the end, no matter what happens beforehand. It was a good learning experience for me.”
Canadian GP in analysis: How Norris and Russell gave Verstappen the victory
At the same time, Red Bull showed a week ago in Austria that it is still possible to make mistakes. So when the unpredictable rain comes, you can probably safely throw pace predictions out the window.
Realistically, the group of favorites is certainly limited to Mercedes, McLaren and Verstappen. Ferrari continues to struggle with updates and has now even gone back to the Imola specification. Sergio Perez will start from the second-to-last place on the grid after spinning in qualifying. Hopes are limited here.