Is the era of four-way battles in Formula 1 really beginning now? In any case, there is no sign of Red Bull’s dominance being restored in Barcelona. Max Verstappen had hoped for easier conditions when he returned to the classic European circuits, but instead he finished Friday in Spain behind Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris – meaning Red Bull was behind Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren.
The ongoing weakness of Red Bull requires a training analysis of Motorsport-Magazin.com after a closer look. But once all the uncertainties have been resolved, Max Verstappen will not be the favourite at the Spanish GP as he has often been in racing form in the past. There are actually signs of a change in direction. Only one team will go to bed happy on Friday, and it is certainly not Red Bull.
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George Russell was thrown off by a slow Haas before La Caixa, overdid it at the turn-in point and grilled his tires with a sideways skid. The C3 Pirellis, which are used as soft tires here, can manage a push lap without any real management – but not a single meter more. If they overheat once, the performance peak is destroyed.
Max Verstappen also had his share of traffic, losing a tenth in turn seven. But if you subtract that, you’re still missing another tenth to catch up with the top three. This time is buried in just two corners. Red Bull is great in fast corners, but forgettable in long, slow ones.
Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes: Where is the Barcelona balance worst?
This is the question they seem to want to argue about on Friday. The conditions practically provoked setup problems. High temperatures, gusty winds and asphalt that has become noticeably rougher in recent months (which, according to Pirelli, is now approaching the brutal asphalt of Bahrain in terms of intensity) caused problems for everyone.
The RB20 understeers into the corner. What Verstappen doesn’t like is that he has to slow down earlier. The rear only comes out at the exit, and then too suddenly. Unlike in the last races, motorsport consultant Dr. Helmut Marko doesn’t see a complex setup deficit behind this and has a simple solution: “We should have changed the rear wing for Max, then the balance would have been better.” But fitting the larger wing would have taken 20 minutes. Time that Red Bull didn’t want to waste.
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Ferrari also had a similar dilemma. Not with Carlos Sainz, who was happy with the qualifying trim. Charles Leclerc, however, had done a comparison test in FP1 with old parts, and only Sainz had all the components of the latest Ferrari update – sidepods, underbody, rear wing. This meant that Leclerc fell behind on setup, and it was only after the qualifying simulation in FP2 that it became clear where.
Unfortunately, this meant a lengthy rebuilding of the suspension for Leclerc. That’s why his long run afterwards was very short: “From the few laps we had, there is still a lot to improve. But we have a clear vision of what we want to do with the car to make it better.”
And finally, Mercedes was not happy either. “Both drivers were not really that happy, and you can see on the onboards that things are going in all directions,” analyzed the team boss Toto Wolff on ORF. “There is a lot that needs to be changed with the car to make it drive better.” Wolff and Marko also pass the “we haven’t shown everything with the engine yet” card to each other. Verstappen has the most obvious potential in qualifying trim, but the competition is not sleeping. And beyond qualifying, there is a much bigger problem for all three anyway.
McLaren leads all tyre ratings in race trim from Barcelona
McLaren has not been mentioned at all in this analysis so far. Because third-placed Lando Norris had no balance problems. His McLaren seems to have been the best performing car on Friday. And that is not necessarily evident on a lap where the competition still wants to be able to up the ante. It becomes really dangerous in racing trim.
In general, McLaren leads the long-run tables with all three tire compounds. However, they are somewhat distorted. The majority focused on the soft, because it has a potential time advantage of up to 1.2 seconds per lap over the medium. Even with full tanks. That means huge potential at the start of the stint. Even if the soft wears down faster, a two-stop strategy with soft-medium combinations is to be expected.
The teams tried to find out how carefully they had to start the soft stint in order to have enough left at the end to drive sensibly for as long as possible. Oscar Piastri started his long run aggressively and suffered a significant drop in performance. The number two in the soft table, Max Verstappen, is not really comparable. Verstappen drove on medium at first and only switched to soft at the end. This meant that his tanks were already emptier in this short sprint than those of his competitors.
Leclerc, Sainz, Russell and Norris were separated by just 0.114 seconds in average lap time. In racing trim, this is negligible. But not Norris’s noticeably flat time development. Unlike his teammate Piastri, he started very cautiously with a 1:20.153 and was able to confidently control the pace until the end with a 1:20.248. His main rival Sainz visibly slowed down. This effectively makes Norris the winner of the soft table.
Norris is actually leading the table on the medium, but here the picture is distorted again. This time it is the McLaren that drove with emptier tanks, while Red Bull did the main work on the medium. Verstappen also shone on the medium with controlled times. Helmut Marko therefore states with good reason afterwards: “I still see McLaren as the main opponent.” With Ferrari and Mercedes threatening in the background.
It will stay at these four. No matter what Pierre Gasly wants to indicate with a brief flare-up and fourth place in the qualifying simulations. In race trim, however, the Alpine now looks like a good, perhaps the best, midfield car. Esteban Ocon is clearly leading the chasing pack on the soft tires. The Racing Bulls, which have been strong recently, are struggling to get the latest update up and running. And Aston Martin seems to be on the verge of falling into nowhere.