Yesterday, Formula 1 already provided a foretaste of the Canadian GP. George Russell and Max Verstappen qualified at the same time to first place – so for the first time since Brazil 2022, a Mercedes is at the front of the starting grid. Russell also won back then. If he wants to repeat that in the race today, he will have to prevail against a long list of competitors. Because it’s F1 roulette, and half the field seems to have ambitions.
And in fact, the check of the favorites for today’s race shows that half of the field is not so wrong. Mercedes, McLaren, Max Verstappen, yes, even Ferrari, who were stuck on starting positions 11 and 12, have to be looked back. At least after two days in Canada there are no good reasons to exclude them. Rather, the circle of “favorites” has to be drawn wide. Because the Grand Prix itself is threatened by a multi-layered arbitrariness.
The weather factor: Who has the best (rain) cards in Canada?
The most important factor this weekend was at times the rain. Not necessarily its presence. “One important element is that we haven’t seen consistent, stable wet conditions so far,” says McLaren team boss Andrea Stella. “It was dry, greasy, completely wet, completely variable.”
That was the prevailing view in the paddock on Saturday evening. Yes, it will rain at some point on Sunday. The only problem is that it is completely impossible to predict. A look back at Saturday illustrates the problem with the general weather situation in the Montreal area. Rain and thunderstorms have been sweeping through the region for days, but on unpredictable paths.
In qualifying, everyone was expecting rain. The probability of rain was 80 percent. Then the arrival date started to change. End of Q1. End of Q2. Then it didn’t come at all. We’re not talking about gigantic storms here, but rather localized showers. That’s exactly what will happen on Sunday. The latest forecast is 50 percent chance of rain around the race.
“Then it’s less about the pace and more about the strategic aspect of being on the right tires at the right time,” says McLaren team boss Stella. And being right about guessing rain.
New asphalt as a major hurdle in the race
The new Montreal asphalt plays an additional role, especially when it is dry. The entire route was newly paved for 2024 and has hardly been used so far. The asphalt is very smooth, with practically no rubber abrasion. On the one hand, this ensures that its condition changes quickly when there is a lot of traffic. On the other hand, it makes things really slippery even without rain.
With the added bonus of cold temperatures, this causes significant graining on the tires. “Especially on the medium, the compound that almost everyone has used for long runs,” said Pirelli’s sports director Mario Isola. “It therefore seems very likely that in a dry race, two stops will be the most effective strategy, with the predominant choice of two hard tires.” Only Aston Martin, Sauber and the Racing Bulls have already parted with one hard tire, the other seven teams have two sets available per driver for the race.
Everyone is afraid of graining. “Once you fall off the tyre cliff, it will be difficult to fight back,” predicts pole setter George Russell. “It’s going to be a tough race for everyone, to be honest. Graining seems to be a problem and with this new track surface nobody knows how it’s going to turn out.”
Challenges: Red Bull & McLaren build on past strengths
These circumstances make it difficult to choose a clear favorite. The most confident of all the top drivers do not appear to be in the Mercedes pole team. “I think that we may have the better package in racing trim,” speculated Red Bull’s motorsport boss Dr. Helmut Marko on ServusTV after qualifying.
Immediately following in Red Bull’s wake is McLaren. “We’ve had great racing pace in the last few races,” said Lando Norris, who started from third place and therefore sees himself as one of the contenders for victory. With Oscar Piastri in fourth place, McLaren is also the only top team that has both cars at the front. Max Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez is in 16th place, Russell’s teammate Lewis Hamilton in 7th place.
Is Mercedes even better in Canada?
“But George has been the favorite all weekend, they were very fast,” Norris said, nevertheless praising the Mercedes competition. The Mercedes had even more potential in qualifying. But for unknown reasons, they were unable to get the maximum out of the tires in the decisive Q3 race. Russell would have easily been three tenths ahead.
It is an open question whether the Mercedes, which is really fast for the first time after the last updates spread over several races, can also keep up in race trim. The only sensible laps with full tanks were all driven on Saturday in FP3. But you can’t compare them because everyone did a different program due to the rainy Friday. And the sometimes massive graining probably prompted some teams to make major changes to the setup afterwards.
Then, as already mentioned, anything can happen. Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso (6th on the grid) led the table on Friday and are particularly good at heating up the tires. So, at least as long as it stays wet, you have to keep an eye on Alonso. The two Racing Bulls Daniel Ricciardo (5th) and Yuki Tsunoda (8th) are also in the middle of the leading group. If chaos breaks out, they should also be thought of.